The outcome of a recent by-election in Toronto suggests changes could lie ahead in Canada’s next federal election.
The by-election, held in late June, saw Conservative candidate Don Stewart defeat Liberal candidate Leslie Church in the federal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s.
While the Conservatives won that seat by just 590 votes, it is a significant shift as the Liberals had held that riding for more than 30 years.
Since Pierre Poilievre was elected the leader of the Conservative Party, the party has shown a strong lead in opinion polls and in recent months, more than two in five Canadians have indicated they would vote Conservative. The same polls show fewer than one in four voters backing the Liberals.
A lot can change between now and October 2025, when the next federal election is expected.
However, while Canadians have strong-held views on federal politics, the outcome of the next federal election will likely be a calm, sedate affair.
Democracy in Canada has been strong enough to handle changes in government and changes in ideological direction at the federal level.
International studies consistently place Canada as one of the most robust democracies and one of the freest nations in the world.
This country has enjoyed the peaceful transfer of power after elections at the federal, provincial and municipal levels. People are not always happy with the results, but there is an acceptance.
This does not hold true in other parts of the world.
The day after the Toronto by-election, there was an attempted coup in Bolivia, as soldiers stormed the presidential palace in La Paz, the administrative capital.
Since 2020, coups and coup attempts have happened in numerous countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, South America and Asia. Earlier coups have affected Central America and other parts of Europe as well.
An attack on the United States Capitol in January 2021 was closer to Canada than other coups and coup attempts in the past, and it left some questioning whether democracy in this country could be under a similar threat in the future.
At present, the result of the by-election in Toronto has been received calmly, without uproar or loud outrage.
This is the way Canadians have handled politics in the past. Governments change at the ballot box, not as the result of uprisings in the streets.
It is up to all to ensure this method continues in the future.
— Black Press